Prediction Market First Trade Tracking

A first trade is the first filled order a new user places on a market, whether they buy a yes or a no position. It is the point where a visitor stops browsing and puts real money behind a view.

Signups are a weak signal on prediction markets. Many people register to watch an event, never fund the account and never come back. A first trade shows intent, and it is the event your product team already treats as activation.

• Signups are cheap and noisy. Creator audiences often register out of curiosity, so a signup count can look strong while almost nobody trades.
• First trade is closer to revenue. It confirms the user finished verification and funding, and it is the best early predictor of repeat activity.
• It lets you compare creators fairly. Two creators with the same click volume can deliver very different numbers of first trades.
• It keeps teams aligned. Marketing, growth and product all read the same event instead of arguing over signup definitions.

For the wider picture on creator work in this category, see our prediction markets marketing page.

Attribution is where most prediction market campaigns lose clean data. These practices keep it readable:

• One tracking link per creator. Add the creator name, platform and campaign to the link, so a click on Kick can be told apart from a click on X.
• Creator codes as a backup. Many viewers open the app later and skip the link. A short code entered at signup catches them.
• Creator landing pages. A page per creator or per wave lets you pass the source through the whole signup flow.
• A written attribution rule. Decide first touch or last touch before the campaign starts, and use the same rule in every report.
• A fixed attribution window. Pick the number of days between click and first trade you will count, and apply it to every creator equally.
• Deduplication. One user, one first trade. Remove test accounts, team wallets and repeat signups from the same device.

If you are also running clip distribution, give clippers their own link parameters so reposted clips do not blur the creator numbers. Our Polymarket marketing agency and Kalshi marketing agency pages show how we run creator work for each platform.